The weather in the Cotswolds, honestly

The Cotswolds has a mild, damp climate, a little cooler, wetter and windier than the lowland round it because so much of it is high ground. On the Met Office's 1991 to 2020 averages for Little Rissington (opens in a new tab), the station on the old airfield above Bourton-on-the-Water, July days reach 21.4°C and January days 6.5°C, about 810mm of rain falls in a year on 133 days, and there are 46 nights of air frost. October to January are the wettest months, and May to August the sunniest.

For a lowland comparison we use Brize Norton (opens in a new tab), in the Windrush and Thames lowland south of Burford. The villages along the Cotswold rivers sit somewhere between the two.

Why the tops are colder and windier

The high wolds are about a degree colder than the lowland all year, and windier by half. Over thirty years Little Rissington, the higher station, averaged a daytime high of 13.4°C against 14.6°C, a mean wind of 10.3 knots against 6.7, and about 100mm more rain a year (810mm against 706mm). Frost nights are close, 46 against 44, since cold air sinks into low ground on still nights.

On the ground, a walk across the open wold between Stow-on-the-Wold and Northleach feels colder than the forecast for Cheltenham or Oxford. The valleys of the Coln, the Windrush and the Five Valleys are more sheltered, and slower to clear of frost on winter mornings.

Our month guides turn these figures into plans, from January, February and March through April, May, June, July, August and September to October, November and December. For the choice of season, read when to visit the Cotswolds.

Snow and the roads over the hills

When snow comes, it closes the lanes before it touches the main roads. Gloucestershire County Council salts a priority network of A and B roads, some main bus routes and roads to hospitals and schools, about 28% of the county's roads, and each run takes about three hours (its gritting page (opens in a new tab)). Minor lanes are salted only in prolonged severe weather, when time allows. The lanes that climb to Snowshill, drop into the Slaughters or cross the escarpment above Broadway and Winchcombe are the ones to avoid in snow or ice.

If snow is forecast, stay on the A roads, check the council's map before you set out, and pick a base on the railway, such as Moreton-in-Marsh or Kingham, so the train is your way home.

Floods: the Windrush, the Coln and the Thames

The rivers rise after long wet spells, most often from late autumn to early spring, and the Environment Agency names the stretches it watches. Its flood warning area for the River Windrush at Bourton on the Water (opens in a new tab) runs from the A436 down to the Little Rissington pits, and a flood alert area covers the River Dikler from Condicote to Little Rissington, taking in Bourton and Upper and Lower Slaughter. On the Coln, the warning area from Fossebridge to Quennington (opens in a new tab) includes Bibury. Downstream, an alert area covers the Thames and its small tributaries from Calcutt to Lechlade.

A flood alert means flooding is possible. A flood warning means it is expected. Before a winter trip, look up the village on Check for flooding (opens in a new tab) or ring Floodline on 0345 988 1188. Riverside paths and fords go under first.

What to pack

Pack for rain and wind in any month, and for mud from October to April. A waterproof jacket, a warm layer even in summer for the tops, and boots with a grip for field paths cover most days. In winter add a hat and gloves for the open wold, and a torch for the short afternoons. In July and August take sun cream and water on a long walk, since much of the high ground has no shade. For a wet day, see the rainy-day guide.